MLB Draft Guide: Oakland Athletics
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After an eight year run with at least 87 wins, the Oakland A's have now failed to finish above .500 in two consecutive seasons. The American League West isn't quite the duck soup it used to be the last time the A's finished at the top, but now that Oakland has a little bit of pop in their lineup they could very likely turn things around in 2009, but there are still a long way off from contending. The most notable new addition to the lineup is two-time All-Star and runner-up for the 2007 NL MVP award Matt Holliday, acquired in a trade that sent Huston Street, starter Greg Smith and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez to the Rockies. It was a costly deal for Oakland, but a very wise one for a team that does not have the luxury of waiting for the promising Gonzalez to develop. Even if they had, the likelihood that he would develop in to a player more spectacular than Holliday is almost next to nothing. Also, proving that when no one loves you, you can always come home; Jason Giambi returns to the A's, after a winter of hitting the gym hard and building himself back up to a muscular 240 lbs. Giambi was hitting like the top slugger in baseball in May and June of 2008, batting .310 with 12 home runs and an OPS over 1.000 and is still looking for the opportunity to reclaim his title as a serious power threat and clean-up hitter.
The A's will face road blocks, though. First and foremost will be the A's atrocious team batting average, it needs to come up, and a new batting coach certainly wouldn't hurt. The team will also have to avoid serious injury, most notably from Eric Chavez, Jason Giambi, Mark Ellis, Bobby Crosby and Justin Duchscherer. Finally they A's will have to hope that their less than impressive rotation will hold it together.
Matt Holliday
Matt Holliday is one of the best (if not the best) outfielders in baseball. Many expect his numbers to plummet in a big way, now that he has left the most hitter friendly park in baseball. Let’s set something straight right now. Fact: Coors Field is not even close to being the most hitter friendly park in the MLB. It actually ranks ninth, with a three year average of 2.15 HR-per-game. It is unrealistic to think that Holliday's RBI totals won't dip a bit with a far less talented line up overall compared to what he had in Colorado, but there is no reason to think he won't hit for a similar average and for similar power. It will also be very interesting to see if Holliday, who stole a career high 28 bases last season, while only being caught twice, decides to push his limits a little bit more in an attempt to create more scoring opportunities for his new team. Bottom line is that Matt Holliday remains one of the most consistent hitters and dedicated players in the MLB, and any fantasy team should enjoy a .320 hitter even if he does hit a few less long balls and knocks in ten less RBI's or so.
Jason Giambi
Jason Giambi will be a great late round flier this season for anyone looking to add a little pop to their fantasy team. In fact, they may end up with a player valuable enough to have gone in round seven or so. As mentioned earlier, Giambi had a monster May and June last season where there was simply no place to pitch to him. Giambi hit everything and hit it hard. He finished the season with a very respectable 32 homeruns and 96 RBI's but with a very disappointing .247 BA. Giambi has been working hard this winter and claims to be in the best shape of his life; however we seem to hear that from Giambi every season. He's looking buff again at a much toned 240 lbs and in very good spirits about returning to the A's. I like Giambi's odds of a big comeback effort for the fans who first welcomed him to the MLB. Giambi is a great sleeper for 35-40 home runs this season.
Justin Duchscherer
Justin Duchscherer was always a great low ERA and WHIP pitcher as a reliever so it came as no surprise to see that trend continue as he took on a starting role. It was very disappointing to see his K/9 stats take an ugly drop off, though. However, when you consider that he pitched nearly a hundred more innings than he did in 2006 or 2007, it's hard not to still be impressed in how well he handled the added pressure. Duchscherer will once again be pushed to his limits as he now finds himself as the ace of the A's rotation. He will be expected to handle 200+ innings this year, while maintaining or surpassing last years winning percentage. Duchscherer has to be considered a huge injury risk as he has struggled with a bad hip and is now being pushed harder than ever. Much like last season he will probably need a couple of short DL stints to rest that hip, but I believe he will perform as expected. He will make a suitable pitcher for the middle of your fantasy rotation.
Daric Barton
You will be hard pressed to find a player with worse plate discipline than Daric Barton. Barton appears to swing purely on instinct, making a conscious decision as to whether or not he will swing before the pitch is even thrown. Calling his rookie season a disappointment is like saying Jeffrey Dahmer had an eating disorder. Barton batted a pathetic .226 with only nine HRs in 446 at bats and is undeserving of the job as starting first baseman. The A's really have no other options, they need to keep Giambi at DH and healthy, Barton will be pushed for playing time eventually, but for now he has job security regardless of how poorly he plays. I personally do not think Barton has anywhere near enough talent to be successful as a major league ball player.
Sean Gallagher
The thought of Sean Gallagher as the number two pitcher in the A's rotation must turn their fan’s stomachs. Gallagher’s career 5.54 ERA has shown none of the brilliance that earned him the title of a strike out specialist and top prospect at the Minor League level. The Cubs became so disgusted with him they were more than happy to package him with a handful of other prospects that had disappointed to date, for the oft-injured Rich Harden. The good news is that we saw Gallagher's strike out potential return last season; the bad news is everything that was hit , was hammered. I don't believe Gallagher will be a complete bust, he just needs to work on pitch placement, as well as adding a couple of new pitches to keep hitters off balance. All this needs to be taken care of in the minors. The A's are desperate and cannot afford to handle Gallagher with kid gloves; as a result he's going to get slaughtered again.
Jack Cust
If nothing else, at least the addition of Matt Holliday gives the A's the opportunity to shove Jack Cust over to right field where such an inept defender should be, if he's forced to play the outfield. Cust can't run or catch, and from what we saw last season, hitting may not be his forte either. Few people seem aware of the fact that Cust has made major league appearances in the past seven seasons with five major league teams. I am always shocked by how many fans believe him to be an A's prospect. If Cust had any real future in the bigs we would have seen something noteworthy by now. He is career waiver trash. His disgustingly low batting average would be easily over looked if not for the fact that his OBP and slugging percentage are also well below acceptable parameters. Cust isn't even suitable as a DH, and will be replaced and forgotten about as soon as one of the A's young and promising outfield prospects are developed enough to take over full time.
Three for Value
Ryan Sweeney
Ryan Sweeney isn't the best outfield prospect the A's have to offer, but it would appear that he performed well enough last season to stake his claim to the centerfield position to open 2009. The soon to be 24 year old Sweeney hit .286 in 384 at bats last season and showed great speed and a tendency to hit for extra bases. However, Sweeney seemed to hesitate and lack confidence when presented with prime opportunities to swipe bases. He did manage to steal nine and was only caught once; hopefully we'll see more attempts this season. Sweeney has a nice size frame and plenty of power, but is really more of a line drive gap hitter. Very strange, but it works for him and allows him to utilize his speed. Ryan Sweeney has all the tools to become a poor man's Shane Victorino in fantasy play and will likely find himself hitting in the lead-off spot early in the season, he is expected to start the season in the two-hole.
Brad Ziegler's bizarre pitch delivery had hitters frustrated every time he took the mound last season. Ziegler is not over powering, and not much of a strike out pitcher, but still manages to keep hitters guessing. His deceptive pitching style impressed the A's enough that they will be opening the season with Ziegler taking over as the teams full time closer. We'll see if the other teams in the AL have bothered to scout him, if not, Ziegler should be just as dominant. Even if Ziegler doesn't finish the season as closer, he should be available in the last few rounds for anyone who is desperate to add a few saves.
Dana Eveland
Few owners gave Dana Eveland a second thought last season when he was added to the A's rotation. However, he quickly turned heads and became one of the biggest free agent pick ups as he come out mowing down hitters and racking up wins. But, as the season wore on, Eveland became less and less effective with every start as it became evident that he did not have the conditioning for the huge work load he had been given. It wasn't Eveland's fault. He had never pitched more than 109 innings at any level of his career and had never pitched more than 31 major league innings. Expect Eveland to be more prepared for his workload this season; do not expect his inflated WHIP to come down. Eveland walks a lot of batters and that doesn't seem likely to change, Eveland is still a decent option to fill out your fantasy rotation.
Aaron Cunningham
Aaron Cunningham had the opportunity to come up for a cup of coffee with the A's last season. He hit for a low average as seems to be typical of any Oakland hitter right now and really didn't impress much. He got hot in his last three games with the team but it wasn't enough for him to be considered for a starting position with the team this season. It's probably for the best, as he could use more time in the minors. Cunningham has hit about .330 on average in the minors, shown flashes of power and speed, and could develop into a 20/20 type hitter. Of all of the A's outfield prospects, Cunningham seems the most promising, he needs to work on his plate discipline and reduce his strikeouts, though.
Chris Carter
Since Daric Barton is clearly not a long term solution at first base the A's must be working double time on preparing Chris Carter for his major league debut. Carter, who was named the organization's player of the year in 2008, enjoyed a breakout season at Class-A Stockton, leading the Cal League with 39 home runs and 104 RBIs. He batted .259 with 101 runs scored, a .361 on-base percentage and .569 slugging percentage, playing first and third base. Once again his BA is nothing to write home about and he strikes out far too often, but Carter's homerun power is unmatched by any other prospect. Carter often draws comparisons to Ryan Howard.
Trevor Cahill
The bright light at the end of Oakland's tunnel of rotational woes is their deep and lucrative pool of pitching prospects. Trevor Cahill isn't their best prospect but he is spectacular and probable to be the first to make an impact. Cahill has a vicious curveball and held opposing batters to a .179 batting average last season in Single-A, going 11-5 with a 2.65 ERA. He was then invited to be part of Team USA at the Olympics and dominated once again. Cahill will likely start in AA and baring any setbacks move up to AAA rather quickly. Since the A's are not contenders, it seems unlikely that Cahill will be rushed into the rotation and it is doubtful that he will make an appearance this year. Look for him to make a big impact in 2010, though.
Projected Lineup
1 Mark Ellis 2B - .265 AVG – 13 HR – 48 RBI – 65 R – 9 SB
2 Ryan Sweeney CF - .279 AVG - 7 HR – 50 RBI – 58 R – 21 SB
3 Matt Holliday LF - .320 AVG - 31 HR - 105 RBI - 100 R – 18 SB
4 Jason Giambi DH - .260 AVG - 35 HR – 95 RBI – 72 R – 0 SB
5 Eric Chavez 3B - .270 AVG - 15 HR - 52 RBI - 45 R – 4 SB
6 Jack Cust RF - .237 AVG - 27 HR - 70 RBI - 60 R – 0 SB
7 Daric Barton 1B - .243 AVG - 10 HR – 48 RBI – 62 R – 2 SB
8 Kurt Suzuki C - .281 AVG - 9 HR – 55 RBI – 58 R – 2 SB
9 Bobby Crosby SS - .238 AVG - 14 HR – 75 RBI – 65 R – 13 SB
Projected Staff
1 Justin Duchscherer - 10-8, 3.25 ERA, 127 K, 55 BB, 1.31 WHIP
2 Sean Gallagher - 6-12, 5.15 ERA, 160 K, 84 BB, 1.48 WHIP
3 Dana Eveland - 13-11, 4.27 ERA, 148 K, 80 BB, 1.49 WHIP
4 Gio Gonzalez - 7-9, 4.25 ERA, 125 K, 79 BB, 1.56 WHIP
5 Josh Outman - 7-5, 4.25 ERA, 75 K, 33 BB, 1.47 WHIP
Brad Ziegler – 33 SV, 1.54 ERA, 46 K, 29 BB, 1.13 WHIP
Joey Devine – 6 SV, 2.49 ERA, 66 K, 36 BB, 1.23 WHIP
Jerry Blevins – 1 SV, 3.80 ERA, 19 K, 8 BB, 1.31 WHIP
Santiago Casilla – 1 SV, 4.46 ERA, 32 K, 15 BB, 1.46 WHIP
Michael Wuertz – 0 SV, 3.42 ERA, 48 K, 21 BB, 1.32 WH
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