MLB Draft Guide: Toronto Blue Jays
Team Preview
Every year a tale is told about how the Blue Jays will rise up and become wild card contenders in the American League, and every year the Jays fail. J.P. Riccardi brought fans hope in the for
Riccardi has no scouting ability, the maturity level of a 13 year old, and no respect either for or from his players. He is the biggest obstacle weighing down the Jays and I cannot fathom why he has not yet been shown the door. His biggest accomplishment still seems to be bringing Eric Hinske and Ted Lilly over from the Oakland A's when he crossed over himself. Some accomplishment given the terms on which both players left the ball club.
After the release of Manager John Gibbons and the return of the no nonsense Cito Gaston to the club, Riccardi's days are finally numbered and he could easily be fired by mid-season to the joy of Jays fans everywhere. Gaston is the winningest manager in Jays history and led them to back-to-back World Series victories in 1992 and 1993. He represents a good start in turning the club around but there is still much work to be done. The Jays will also have a new owner after the death of Ted Rogers, and it could be beneficial to have someone with a new perspective calling the shots behind the scenes. Maybe this is where a true five year plan takes effect. Dominance will not come over night, but it appears that big changes will be coming.
Three Up
Roy Halladay
Roy Halladay has been the face of the the Blue Jays franchise and by far their most valuable roster member since 2002. Despite a few minor injuries he has been consistently dominant year in and year out. 2008 marked one of Halladay best seasons to date, he topped 200 strikeouts for only the second time in his career, posting a 2.78 ERA while logging an incredible 246 innings. Even more incredible is that in all those innings he only walked 39 batters.
Alex Rios
We know Alex Rios can easily steal 30-40 bases in a season, and we know he has decent power, but what you may not have noticed is that Rios only seems to hit those homers either in the first half or the second half of the season. Even more frustrating is the fact that, which half he decides to hit them in appears to be completely random. Regardless, Rios maintains a batting average of between .290 and .300 and remains a master of hitting for extra bases. There is no doubt that Rios will only get better this season and in seasons to follow, and he is a must start outfielder in any league. At the magical age of 27, this could be the season where Rios finally perfects his power swing. He will be a huge contributor for the Jays this season and should be viewed as a top 15 fantasy outfielder, but you wouldn't hear any snickers from me if you drafted him as a top ten at his position.
Vernon Wells
It may seem a little strange to have Vernon Wells in the three up category - he was almost replaced by a Jays prospect here. There really isn't much to get excited about on the Jays roster. Wells has struggled with a hamstring injury and abdominal oblique muscle strains possibly caused by a poor swinging technique. The result has been disappointing production, lengthy DL stints, and a fluctuating batting average.
He has the ability to be a number one fantasy outfielder but can't be taken as more than a low end number two at this time. The Jays need Wells to return to the slugger and smart base runner we saw in 2006. Cito Gaston appears to have made Wells his personal project and is rumored to have provided Wells with a new personal trainer to help get Wells in shape and back on track for the upcoming season. One can only hope this is the season Vernon Wells rights his ship, his trade value is low at this time dispte his potential so the Jays appear to be stuck with him. He could be a huge late round steal in fantasy leagues if he at least manages to stay healthy.
Three Down
Scott Rolen
In one of the most pointless trades in MLB history the Jays swapped third baseman Troy Glaus for then Cardinals third baseman Scott Rolen simply because neither one could find away to get along with their teams management. It was a trade of convenience and nothing more. To fans it seemed like one often injured third baseman for another and one where the Jays got the shorter end of the stick as Rolen's gold glove days seemed to be a fading memory.
Predictably, Rolen was sidelined for a significant portion of the season with lingering shoulder problems, while Troy Glaus maintained his health and performed respectably well given his age and new ball club. The fact that Marco Scutaro will be pressing even a healthy Scott Rolen for playing time is all fantasy owners should need to know to understand just how far Rolen's value has fallen. With less than a dozen home runs and only 50 RBI's in over 400 at bats in 2008, Rolen is reduced to being nothing more than an AL-only option in fantasy leagues.
Lyle Overbay
Lyle Overbay is clearly on the decline, but he appeared to just give up completely in the final two months of the 2008 season with a slump that included an 0 for 21 funk setting a new record high for at bats without a hit for his career. Often he could be seen, walking nonchalantly back to the dug out after 
The fact that the Jays signed Kevin Millar should be an indication to Overbay that the Jays franchise simply won't put up with his lack of effort. If he doesn't want to be a Jay and refuses to give 100%, I do not think they will hesitate to release him to waivers and give Millar or crashed minor league prospect Chip Cannon a shot, a scenario that would probably see Lind moved to first while Travis Snider takes left field and Cannon acts as Designated Hitter. The Jays attempted to trade Overbay (along with Jason Frasor) to the Mariners back in November for Raul Ibanez. An offer that I'm sure had the Mariners management struggling to keep a straight face as they uttered a polite "No, thank you." If Overbay is released, he will likely be picked up by another team, but you should have little interest outside of the deepest of fantasy leagues.
Shawn Marcum
I have taken part in many mock drafts and even a few real drafts this pre-season and keep seeing Shawn Marcum drafted in the later rounds as some kind of sleeper. He's going to be comatose for fantasy leagues, not a sleeper. Shawn Marcum is out for the 2009 season, and it is very likely that he is finished as a major league pitcher all together, as the damage to his right elbow is too severe and left him with soreness and numbness from his elbow to his pinkie. Marcum has opted for complete ligament replacement surgery and is not optimistic about his future. He is not even worth stashing on your DL, ignore him completely in all 2009 drafts.
Three for Value
Aaron Hill
It would be nice to take a break from discussing injuries at this point, but that's not going to be the case. At least Aaron Hill's injury is only Post-concussion syndrome, suffered when David Eckstein tried to enter the body of Hill by running in to him at full force, or at least that's what it looked like. Aaron Hill is expected to be ready for spring training and has improved in every aspect of his game in his brief major league career. He was criticized for his defensive play in 2006, and somehow managed to convert himself in to a gold glove caliber defender by 2007. He was told he would never hit for much power, but tripled his home run output in 2007.He also maintained a .290 batting average in 2006 and 2007.
Hill has the ability to play all infield positions with the exception of catcher, and showed willingness to learn the outfield if the Jays felt it necessary to place him there due to an injury riddled roster. As much as I hate the expression it applies here, Arron Hill has heart. He cares about winning and he wants to be the best at what he does. If everyone on the Jays team had that attitude maybe they would have been wild card contenders in recent seasons. Hill is going to be healthy and ready to go by the start of the season, he has the ability to be a top ten and perhaps even a top five, second baseman. Due to many fantasy sites sites still listing him
Adam Lind
Many believe that Adam Lind will be the odd man out and that Travis Snider will win the left field job. They would only be half right. Snider will likely be the starting left fielder for the Jays this season, but as we've already discussed, Lind may need to move over to first base where he played a few games last season, and until then will most likely be the DH alternating with Snider on occasion in order for him to rest. They are not about to tell Lind who batted .394 at the AAA level in 2006 and has maintained a batting average of close to, or well over .300 in every season at every level, that they have no place to put him. Lind hasn't even focused on hitting for power yet at the major league level, attempting to mainly just get on base and try and score runs. He has only stepped on the first rung of his ladder, and he's got a long way to climb. Lind is a great contact hitter and should eventually be able to hit close to thirty home runs per season. Look for him to hit about 20 this season with about 75 RBI's.
Jesse Litsch
Jesse Litsch isn't a great pitcher, I'll be the first to admit that. He may not even be a good pitcher, but whatever he's doing it seemed to work for him in 2008. Litsch isn't capable of striking out many batters but he still finds a way to get outs and doesn't walk many hitters at all. Litsch performed as one of the Jays most effective starting pitchers last season even out performing Roy Halladay for a lengthy stretch.
By the end of the season Litsch had racked up 13 wins in 28 starts which is impressive given the Jays lack of offense and the fact that Litsch rarely pitched deep in to games. Even if Litsch was capable of increasing his win totals he would still be a low end fantasy starter with his lack of K's, but I have doubts that the wins from last season will even be matched. Litsch is a a good bench pitcher for 10 -12 team mixed leagues and a number 4 option for AL only leagues. He certainly managed to perform above expectations last season. With time and the possibility of more experience in how to work the corners as well as an increased pitch repertoire, he may surprise once again.
Three Prospect
Travis Snider
Finally it appears that we will get to see a full season of Jays top prospect Travis Snider. He won't be an immediate superstar - he's still a little green and strikes out too often - but the power potential and ability to hit all over the field is enough to salivate over. It's rare that a player is called up before they turn 21 years of age, but the 20 year old Snider is ready to break in to the big leagues. Strangely enough for a player who strikes out as much as Snider, it really hasn't affected his batting average much. His batting average has hovered between .310 and .340 throughout his minor league career and although we didn't see much of his power when up for a cup of coffee with the Jays last season he still hit .301 in 74 at bats. Snider is only a couple of seasons away from being the Jays MVP.
David Purcey
David Purcey finds his way on to this list mainly because he will be relied on heavily this season. The Jays seemed to have some faith in him but pulled him from the rotation last season after he was called up out of desperation as an injury replacement, not because they were not happy with what they saw but actually because they were. GM J.P. Riccardi was stunned with the way Purcey handled himself on the mound stating publicly "I had no idea what we had with him" and pulled him from the rotation because they didn't want to over-work him.
That comment from J.P. only shows me how little they originally thought of Purcey as he was far from impressive going 3-6 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 12 starts. That only goes to strengthen my views on his scouting abilities. Those three wins were well earned though, and Purcey showed signs of having a future in a major league rotation, despite the lack of consistency. He's someone to watch, and a decent late round flier for AL only leagues.
J.P. Arencibia
Who? I know you're asking that right now. Since the Jays have few prospects that really stand out, I thought we'd look a little deeper in to the future. So who is J.P. Arencibia, he is a catcher who tied Alex Rodriguez's career home run record while playing for his high school team in Miami. That'll generate some hype. In his first professional season Arencibia tied Matt Wieters for most home runs by a catcher with 27, he also hit .298/.322/.527, with 36 doubles. On top of that Arencibia has a great throwing arm and runners will be thinking twice about swiping a base when he's behind the plate.
Now comes the best part, which also has the potential to be the worst part depending on how fate plays it's cards. Despite the lack of professional experience, the Jays my go ahead and give Arencibia a call up in 2009, they are willing to rush him and believe his raw talent will not deteriorate as a result, and lets face it the Jays don't have much in the catcher department and are embarrassed by a long line of failed prospects at the position. Arencibia should be the end of that trend. Keep an eye on this prospect who has been over-shadowed by the likes of Matt Wieters and Tyler Flowers, who are both of lesser overall talents.
Projected Lineup
Alexis Rios, .290 AVG - 22 HR - 90 RBI - 100 RUNS - 25 SB
Travis Snider, .270 AVG - 17 HR - 80 RBI - 65 RUNS - 2 SB
Vernon Wells, .280 AVG - 25 HR - 90 RBI - 80 RUNS - 10 SB
Lyle Overbay, .275 AVG - 12 HR - 60 RBI - 60 RUNS - 0 SB
Scott Rolen, .263 AVG - 6 HR - 45 RBI - 40 RUNS - 1 SB
Adam Lind, .278 AVG - 21 HR - 75 RBI - 70 RUNS - 3 SB
Aaron Hill, .285 AVG - 12 HR - 65 RBI - 65 RUNS - 5 SB
Marco Scutaro, .260 AVG - 6 HR - 45 RBI - 55 RUNS - 6 SB
Rod Barajas, .245 AVG - 12 HR - 60 RBI - 55 RUNS - 1 SB
Projected Staff
Roy Halladay, 17 - 8, 3.50, 185 K, 36 BB, 1.12
Jesse Litsch, 12 - 10, 3.98, 97 K, 55 BB, 1.35
Dustin McGowan, 9 - 10, 4.69, 120 K, 57 BB, 1.41
David Purcey, 8 - 10, 4.88, 125 K, 71 BB, 1.45
Scott Richmond, 4 - 6, 4.56, 55 K, 12 BB, 1.29
Mike Maroth, 1 - 5, 5.30, 18 K, 22 BB, 1.55
Bullpen
B.J. Ryan (CL) - 33, 3.19, 67 K, 30 BB, 1.32
Jesse Carlson - 6, 2.45, 63 K, 22 BB, 1.13
Jeremy Accardo - 2, 3.90, 47 K, 19 BB, 1.32
Casey Janssen - 0, 3.78, 25 K, 12 BB, 1.24
Scott Downs - 1, 3.94, 80 K, 40 BB, 1.42
Brandon League - 0, 3.05, 46 K, 21 BB, 1.26
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